The fight over a proposed menthol cigarette ban – like everything else connected to the presidential campaign – has turned to polling.

As the White House considers the Food and Drug Administration’s rule to prohibit menthol cigarettes, a poll conducted by the Washington, D.C.-based Mellman Group for the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids showed 58% of voters favor a ban compared to 29% who don’t. Among Black voters, 62% support it compared to 25% who don’t. Prohibition foes contend the rule change would hurt President Joe Biden’s standing among Black voters, a core constituency for Democrats. The polling, however, suggests otherwise.

“There is clear evidence that the menthol rule has no meaningful electoral impact,” the pollsters wrote in a summary memo.

The poll asked an initial presidential horse-race question between Biden and former President Donald Trump that gave Biden a at 44% to 42%. After introducing the proposed FDA menthol rule, the survey again asked about a head-to-head campaign by prefacing the question with, “If the Biden Administration ended the sale of menthol flavored cigarettes in the United States…” Biden came out on top with 45% to 43% for Trump.

“This new data proves what we already know to be true – Black voters want to see a menthol ban,” national NAACP President and CEO Derrick Johnson said in a statement. “Now, it’s time for the Biden Administration to put people over profits and swiftly enact a rule that will save countless Black lives. We’re done waiting. … Our lives are at stake.”

The White House in December delayed issuing the final menthol rule after meeting with tobacco industry representatives, with media reports indicating the pause was influenced by political concerns and a poll commissioned by tobacco giant Altria – which wasn’t publicly released – that suggested a ban would turn off “Biden’s core voters.”

“These poll results demonstrate that voters, especially Black voters, strongly support eliminating menthol cigarettes, and they debunk the tobacco industry myth that moving forward will be a political liability,” said Yolonda Richardson, president and CEO of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids. “The Biden administration must issue a final rule without further delay. There is no other single action the administration can take that would do more to advance health equity and help achieve the goals of the President’s Cancer Moonshot.”

Other public polling found support for eliminating menthol cigarettes. A 2022 survey by Morning Consult/Politico poll found voters supported a proposed ban by a 58%-24% margin, with 55% support among Black voters compared to 29% opposed.

The federal government has considered a menthol ban for a decade, supported by scientific evidence that flavored cigarettes are more addictive, more likely to hook young people and harder for smokers to quit. For decades, the tobacco industry marketed menthol products to Black people, which lead to disproportionate health issues. Research shows that prohibiting menthol cigarettes will save up to 654,000 lives within 40 years, including the lives of 255,000 Black Americans.

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